如果你問我下跌趨勢是不是結束, 而現在是新的上漲趨勢? 我的回答為除非SP500指數能突破1130點, 不然我們依然只是在做區間盤整~ 說實在的, 經濟基本方面, 我看不到什麼理由股市應該可以漲更高 (雖然我本來就是屬於買進績優股群的,也樂見於市場上漲), 但是除非經濟與商業房地產出現嚴重危機, 我也不認為我們會再次經歷所謂的第2次經濟衰退 (double dip economic recession), 這也是為什麼我一直提醒"買在箱底, 賣在箱頂"(buy at box bottom support, sell at box top resistant).
不過以技術分析的角度, 當市場經過長時間"盤整"後, 接下來的任何突破都將成為新的強烈趨勢!（不管是上漲或下跌), 這代表如果買家有機會突破1130點壓力區域, 這將啟動更多空頭買家回補與許多將資金放在國庫債的基金經理人"追著"股市買進, 也會是這波新的上漲趨勢最佳燃料.
美股市場從短期超賣(oversold)短短3天來到短期超買(overbought), 我們預期下個禮拜將有一波拉回,手上還有許多空頭持股或還沒多頭進場的你,可藉由這波拉回機會做多空調整. 如果你真的是大熊空頭賣家, 請注意1130點區域, 當盤勢一旦突破1130點, 請乖乖的停損出場, 千萬不要因為"自尊"而跟市場拼鬥, 最後傷亡的永遠不會是市場而是我們自己!
I totally agree with you on VXX's strategy. But one thing worries me is that, VXX drops so much while VIX doesn't really drop. Why are they so different? Does that mean when VIX drops VXX will probably go down to 16?
回覆刪除版主回覆：(01/26/2012 05:45:06 PM)
this is true because VXX is trading VIX index short term future ETN, thus it breaks down faster than $VIX, this is why we will sell $18 and $17 nake puts to lower cost down to $16 and $17, all the premium are very high to collect if we get assign to continue lower cost, and VIX will not go down to zero that's for sure.
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回覆刪除版主回覆：(01/26/2012 05:45:07 PM)
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